Foundation for Defense of Democracies Newsletter‏

اضيف الخبر في يوم الأربعاء ٠٣ - فبراير - ٢٠١٠ ١٢:٠٠ صباحاً.


 

YOU SAY YOU WANT A REVOLUTION? Last week the Senate passed -- unanimously -- a bill that would give President Obama the means to impose serious sanctions on Iran’s despotic rulers for the first time. A growing number of experts and analysts agree he should do that -- while also giving moral and material support to those risking their lives to oppose Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and Ayatollah Khamenei, marching through the streets defiantly chanting: “Obama! Are you with us or against us?” FDD has intensively researched and fervently championed these approaches -- for years. Ken Timmerman writes:
The effort to cut off supplies of refined petroleum to Iran began two years ago, when Arizona State University scholar Orde Kittrie, now a scholar with the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, noticed that Iran continued to import roughly 43 percent of its gasoline supplies, despite its extensive oil exports.

Research by Kittrie and others at FDD found that Iran was relying on just a handful of suppliers, making this type of legislation a precise strike, rather than a broad one, as opponents often claim of sanctions. …

Opponents of sanctions include the U.S. Chamber of Commerce and other pro-export lobbies, as well as the National Iranian-American Council (NIAC), which argues that sanctions would have a negative impact on the Iranian people.

Most pro-democracy activists dismiss those concerns, and say they play into the hands of the Tehran regime.

Clearly the Iranian regime fears a squeeze on refined petroleum supplies “because they see it as part of a comprehensive economic warfare strategy that threatens to undermine a fragile economy, drive up inflation rates, and fan the flame of domestic discontent,” said Mark Dubowitz, executive director of the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies.
More here.
FDD Freedom Scholar Michael Ledeen writes:
Not so long ago I was in the pundit’s equivalent of the psychiatric ward, as one of a tiny handful of people (generally considered deranged) claiming that the Iranian people hated the mullahcracy, were prepared to rise up against it, were totally worthy of American (indeed broad Western) support, and would win.

All of a sudden, a good-sized gaggle of born-again democratic revolutionaries have entered the bandwagon. In the last couple of weeks, Bob Kagan, Charles Krauthammer, Jim Glassman, Ray Takeyh and Richard Haass have jumped on board. God willing, they will stay and attract others. Welcome, comrades! …

[T]he mass movement aimed at regime change in Iran is truly that, and extends throughout all levels of Iranian society, most paradoxically to the Shi’ite clerical leaders. Poor Khamenei keeps saying that religious leaders should speak up, by which he means “defend me!” But they won’t; they want him gone, as most Iranians do.
More here.
In Newsweek, Hass writes:
I've changed my mind. … Iran may be closer to profound political change than at any time since the revolution that ousted the shah 30 years ago. ...

Critics will say promoting regime change will encourage Iranian authorities to tar the opposition as pawns of the West. But the regime is already doing so.
More here.
Kagan writes in The Washington Post that President Obama has a “once-in-a-generation opportunity” to help
the Iranian people achieve a new form of government. Given the role that the Islamic theocracy in Tehran has played in leading and sponsoring anti-democratic, anti-liberal and anti-Western fanaticism for the past three decades, the toppling or even substantial reform of that regime would be second only to the collapse of the Soviet Union in its ideological and geopolitical ramifications. …

Regime change is more important than any deal the Obama administration might strike with Iran's present government on its nuclear program. Even if Tehran were to accept the offer made last year to export some of its low-enriched uranium, this would be a modest step down a long, uncertain road. Such a minor concession is not worth abandoning the push for real change.

So far, the administration has been slow to shift in response to events in Iran. …

The president needs to realize that this is his "tear down this wall" moment. And that it is fleeting. Iran's leaders are rushing to obtain a nuclear weapon in part because they believe that possessing the bomb will strengthen their hand domestically as well as internationally. They're probably right. Moreover, Israel's patience will not be infinite. If too much time passes without change in Iran, Israel may feel compelled to attack, no more how questionable the likelihood of success and how grave the fallout.

Were the Iranian regime to fall on Obama's watch, however, and were he to play some visible role in helping, his place in history as a transformational world leader would be secure. Thirty years ago, the Iranian Revolution triumphed, aided by the incompetence of top Carter administration officials, some of whom, to this day, call for normalization with the Ayatollah Khomeini's brutal successors. Obama has a chance to reverse their strategic and ideological debacle. But he cannot wait too long.
More here.
COULD HAVE KNOCKED ME OVER WITH A FEATHER: The German magazine, Spiegel, says it has
obtained new documents on secret tests and leadership structures that call into question Tehran's claims to be exclusively interested in the peaceful use of the technology. …

The most effective trade weapon would be a fuel embargo. Because of a lack of refinery capacity Iran, which has the world's second-largest oil reserves, imports almost half of the gasoline it uses. Sanctions would trigger a sharp rise in the price of gasoline, inevitably leading to social unrest.
More here.
MEET THE REVOLUTIONARY GAURDS: Former State Department official Goli Ameri writes:
Iran has been under three Security Council sanctions in the past decade, while the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has prospered and the plight of the average Iranian has deteriorated. The IRGC, which in 2007 was designated by the U.S. Congress as a terrorist organization, planned and instigated a coup during the recent Iranian elections and bear responsibility for the murder, rape, and oppression of the Iranian people.

According to Mohsen Sazegara, one of the co-founders of the IRGC and current researcher and democracy activist residing in the U.S., the IRGC controls the fundamentals of Iran's economy, with over 800 companies involved in shipping and ship-building, banking, energy, chemicals, heavy construction and machinery, electricity, transport equipment, and import of tear gas for oppressing mass demonstrations. The IRCG's most recent foray into Iran's business activities was the purchase of a 51% share in the Iranian Telecommunications Company for $8 billion, effectively gaining control of all Iranian communications with the outside world. …

The IRGC is Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's and the Iranian government's power base, and European trade is enhancing the growth of IRGC's web of companies. Flush with cash, the IRGC has taken over the development of the country's nuclear program, support for insurgencies in Afghanistan, Iraq, Gaza and Lebanon, as well as systematic oppression of the Iranian people. …

The IRGC needs nuclear weapons technology to survive and firmly anchor its regional influence. … Europe should note that Iranians won't fast forget countries that thwart their march toward democracy and freedom.
More here.
FIGHTING WORDS: Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei predicts -- or threatens -- Israel’s destruction:
"Definitely, the day will come when nations of the region will witness the destruction of the Zionist regime.” Khamenei was quoted as saying. "How soon or late (Israeli’s demise) will happen depends on how Islamic countries and Muslim nations approach the issue."
More here.
VICTIMS OF THE JEWISH JIHAD? Jeffrey Goldberg on left-winger Andrew Sullivan finding common cause with paleo-right-winger Pat Buchanan on -- oh, surely you can guess. Jeffrey notes that Sullivan
praises a writer for the American Conservative, Daniel Larison, for his bravery in addressing what he sees as a strong connection between terrorism and America's support for Israel. Larison, Andrew writes, "as often, treads where angels fear to."

How true! How brave it is to stand athwart the Jews and yell "Stop!" We are a dangerous group of people. Just look at what has happened to other critics who have gone where angels fear to tread and criticized Israel. Take, for example, Stephen Walt and John Mearsheimer, the authors of "The Israel Lobby." Walt, as many of you know, is in hiding in Holland, under round-the-clock protection of the Dutch police, after the chief rabbi of Wellesley, Mass., issued a fatwa calling for his assassination. Mearsheimer, of course, lost his job at the University of Chicago and was physically assaulted by a group of Hadassah ladies in what became known as the "Grapefruit Spoon Attack of 2009." Now he teaches political science at a community college in Hayden Lake, Idaho, under police guard. And Michael Scheuer, the former CIA man who argues that American Jews are traitors to their country, was recently burned in effigy during a riot led by a cell of Reconstructionist rabbis. All across this country, assaults by Jews on their critics are on the rise. It's gotten so bad you can't even publish a mildly anti-Semitic cartoon without having your office sacked by gangs of extremists from the North American Federation of Temple Youth. It's tough out there for brave truth-tellers these days.
More here.
OSAMA HEARTS POLAR BEARS: Al-Jazeera has aired a new tape, reportedly by Osama bin Laden, blaming the United States for global warming. So unless we cool down the planet quickly, al-Qaeda will have another recruitment tool -- even after Gitmo is closed!
More here.
BYE-BYE BROADWAY: Al-Qaeda terrorist Khalid Sheikh Mohammed won’t be tried in New York City after all. This was a bad idea from the start: It would have had adverse national security ramifications, cost $1 billion dollars (there are better uses for that money -- see EMP item below), and hand KSM a great propaganda vehicle. I made the case against putting the spotlight on KSM in NYC on MSNBC twice last week, viewable here and here.
But giving KSM a civilian trial, as though he were a common criminal, a bank robber from the Bronx or a mob boss, rather than treating him as a combatant -- an unlawful combatant because he targeted civilians -- also is a mistake. Former federal prosecutor and Co-Chairman of FDD’s Center for Law and Counterterrorism Andy McCarthy writes:
Since we have not made provisions for a national-security court to deal with the novel challenge of international terrorism, wartime alien enemy combatants should be tried by military commission in the safety of Guantanamo Bay -- which is what it was built for, at great expense to the American taxpayer.
More here.
Separately, Any also writes:
Reports indicate that the administration thinks the challenge now is to find a new location in which to proceed with the same ill-advised civilian prosecution. Instead, the idea at this point should be to build a sensible strategy going forward: military commissions for now, and, ultimately, a new system for handling national-security cases. …

No opponent of civilian trials for enemy combatants is claiming that everyone who is connected in any way to a terrorism case should be transferred to the military courts. The quarrel here is over how to handle real operatives of al-Qaeda (and its components, like al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula). We are talking about jihadists who are captured plotting, carrying out, or having carried out attacks against the United States — not just anyone who happens to get ensnared in the broad net of a terrorism investigation. …

Calling a prosecution “successful” just means that we convicted the defendant; it does not mean that national security was well served. If, because of civilian due-process rules, we had to reveal national-defense information that we could have kept secret in a military commission — or if we had to spend hundreds of millions of dollars to address security concerns that could have been obviated by having a military trial in the safety of Gitmo — then the country would have been better off getting the same result in a military commission. That is common sense.
More here.
Rich Lowry here.
SANITY: In addition to not trying KSM in NYC, it is looking less likely that Justice Department lawyers from the previous administration will be tried anywhere by attorneys from the current administration. Michael Isikoff and Daniel Klaidman report that
an upcoming Justice Department report from its ethics-watchdog unit, the Office of Professional Responsibility (OPR), clears the Bush administration lawyers who authored the “torture” memos of professional-misconduct allegations.
One more time: The interrogators asked the attorneys to draw a line between torture and coercive interrogation techniques short of torture -- “stress and duress.” You can disagree with where they drew the line -- but you can’t say they did not make a good-faith effort to draw it.
In the end, only three individuals were “water-boarded” under medical supervision. All three were senior al-Qaeda commanders who gave up information -- and because we obtained that information, innocent lives were saved. One can disagree whether that justified the harsh methods. But I don’t see how one can argue that the interrogators and the attorneys who guided them should go to jail or have their lives ruined in some other way for doing what they believed was necessary to protect and defend Americans from ruthless and bloodthirsty terrorists.
More here and here.
BURN BEFORE READING: Former CIA director Michael Hayden writes:
In the war on terrorism, this country faces an enemy whose theory of warfare ends the hard-won distinction in modern thought between combatant and noncombatant. In doing that for which we have created government -- ensuring life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness -- how can we be adequately aggressive to ensure the first value, without unduly threatening the other two? This is hard. And people don't have to be lazy or stupid to get it wrong.

We got it wrong in Detroit on Christmas Day. We allowed an enemy combatant the protections of our Constitution before we had adequately interrogated him. Umar Farouk Abdulmutallab is not "an isolated extremist." He is the tip of the spear of a complex al-Qaeda plot to kill Americans in our homeland.

In the 50 minutes the FBI had to question him, agents reportedly got actionable intelligence. Good. But were there any experts on al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula in the room (other than Abdulmutallab)? Was there anyone intimately familiar with any National Security Agency raw traffic to, from or about the captured terrorist? Did they have a list or photos of suspected recruits? …

There's a final oddity. In August, the government unveiled the HIG for questioning al-Qaeda and announced that the FBI would begin questioning CIA officers about the alleged abuses in the 2004 inspector general's report. They are apparently still getting organized for the al-Qaeda interrogations. But the interrogations of CIA personnel are well underway.
More here.
THE SUN ALSO FLARES: A terrorist EMP attack is one threat; a serious solar storm is another. We could protect Americas from the threat of being thrust back into the pre-industrial age for 1/10th the cost of what was to be spent on KSM’s trial.
My column on this is here.
DOWN THE DRAIN: FDD’s Claudia Rosett on why we also should be giving the UN less of our money, here.
MIDDLE EAST PROGRESS? Tom Gross writes that the news is not all bad:
There were several factors that made the first 12 months of Obama's presidency better for peace prospects (for those of us who want a two-state solution) than previous years.

Firstly, there was less violence, both between Israelis and Palestinians, and between Palestinians and Palestinians, than there had been for years. Among other landmarks, 2009 was the first year in a long time without any successful suicide bombings against Israel.

In addition, the Palestinian security forces in the West Bank have finally started to behave like a security force rather than like a terrorist group. … Then, there was the strong economic growth in both Israel and the Palestinian territories relative to most of the rest of the world, for which 2009 was a bleak year. (While Gaza is not undergoing the same kind of economic growth enjoyed by the West Bank, the standard of living there is nonetheless considerably better than you would suppose from the distorted picture provided by certain partisan journalists and NGO workers, and much better than in many other areas of the world.)

And most importantly, 2009 was the year that a Likud Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, not only recognized the principle of an independent Palestinian state, but also made the most sweeping freeze on Israeli settlement-building in the West Bank since 1967. …

[T]he Palestinian government in Ramallah, with quiet assistance from Israel … is finally doing some state-building instead of engaging in endless hollow "processing" involving talks about talks with foreign leaders. For a Palestinian state to be viable it is not just a question of what Israel might give the Palestinians, but of the Palestinians getting their own house in order.

And even if Mr. Obama isn't quite aware of this accomplishment, those of us who want to see a viable, independent and peaceful Palestinian state can only welcome it.
More here.
AQ SEEKS WMD, U.S. UNPREPARED: The United States has not done enough to protect the country against the threat of weapons of mass destruction even as Al-Qaeda appears intent on staging a large-scale attack, according to a bipartisan panel.
"Nearly a decade after September 11, 2001, one year after our original report, and one month after the Christmas Day bombing attempt, the United States is failing to address several urgent threats, especially bioterrorism," said former senator Bob Graham, chair of the Commission on the Prevention of Weapons of Mass Destruction Proliferation and Terrorism.
More here.
Graham Allison writes:
The first step toward preventing a nuclear 9/11 is believing it could happen. …

Prior to 9/11, how unlikely was a megaterrorist attack on the American homeland? In the previous decade, al Qaeda attacks on the World Trade Center in 1993, U.S. embassies in Kenya and Tanzania in 1998, and the USS Cole in 2000 had together killed almost 250 and injured nearly 6,000. Moreover, the organization was actively training thousands of recruits in camps in Afghanistan for future terrorist operations.

Thinking about risks we face today, we should reflect on the major conclusion of the bipartisan 9/11 Commission established to investigate that catastrophe. The U.S. national security establishment's principal failure prior to Sept. 11, 2001, was, the commission found, a "failure of imagination."
More here.
HURRICANE HUGO: The Washington Post editorializes:
If Mr. Chavez were a right-wing leader or an ally of the United States, Latin American governments and many Democrats in Congress would be mobilizing to stop his latest abuse of power, and to encourage peaceful and democratic opposition. But he is not, and they are mostly silent. The Obama administration, too, has done next to nothing to defend democracy or encourage the opposition in Venezuela.
More here.
HOMELAND INSECURITY: Charles Krauthammer observes:
the decision to Mirandize Abdulmutallab had been made without the knowledge of or consultation with (1) the secretary of defense, (2) the secretary of homeland security, (3) the director of the FBI, (4) the director of the National Counterterrorism Center, or (5) the director of national intelligence (DNI).

The Justice Department acted not just unilaterally, but unaccountably. Obama’s own DNI said that Abdulmutallab should have been interrogated by the HIG, the administration’s new High-Value Detainee Interrogation Group.

Perhaps you hadn’t heard the term. Well, in the very first week of his presidency, Obama abolished by executive order the Bush-Cheney interrogation procedures and pledged to study a substitute mechanism. In August, the administration announced the establishment of the HIG, housed in the FBI but overseen by the National Security Council.

Where was it during the Abdulmutallab case? Not available, admitted National Intelligence Director Dennis Blair, because it had only been conceived for use abroad. Had not one person in this vast administration of highly nuanced sophisticates considered the possibility of a terror attack on American soil?

It gets worse. Blair later had to explain that the HIG was not deployed because it does not yet exist. After a year! …

Travesties of this magnitude are not lost on the American people. One of the reasons Scott Brown won in Massachusetts was his focus on the Mirandizing of Abdulmutallab.
More here.
ANNIVERSARY: Bret Stephens takes stock of President Obama’s foreign policies over the past year. He writes that the world’s dictators have not offered much:
From North Korea, he got missile and nuclear tests. From Iran, he got a contemptuous rejection of his extraordinary offer to enrich uranium for it. From Cuba, Fidel Castro said last month that "the empire's real intentions are obvious, this time beneath the kindly smile and African-American face of Barack Obama." From Venezuela, Hugo Chávez is now comparing Mr. Obama to the devil, a shtick he first tried out on George W. Bush back when liberals thought it was kind of funny. …

As for the Muslim world that Mr. Obama has been at such pains to court (the Cairo and Ankara speeches, his opposition to Gitmo and the war in Iraq, etc.), the 2009 Pew Global Survey that measures opinions about the U.S. finds as follows: Turkey, 14% favorable views of the U.S.; Palestinian territories, 15%; Pakistan, 16%; Jordan, 25%; Egypt, 27%. Granted, this is up slightly from the last year of the Bush administration, but only by a couple of percentage points on average. So that's the great Obama perception dividend? …
More here.
FACEOFF: Nidra Poller writes:
President Nicolas Sarkozy is asking Parliament for a "solemn declaration" that veiled women do not belong in France, followed by an outright legal ban. …

French Muslim intellectuals, activists, and community leaders who represent the promise of an enlightened European Islam are asking for an unambiguous ban on the niqab. Poet and scholar Abdelwahab Meddeb calls the niqab the "ideological sign of radical Islam." Psychoanalyst Fethi Benslama exposes the "masochism" of the self-imposed veil, "unacceptable even in the name of individual freedom." …

Democracy means individual responsibility, which means showing our faces. ….

In a democracy the individual enjoys civil rights and accepts individual civil responsibility. This is why we show our faces, sign our names, look each other in the eyes. Moreover, integration into French society has always meant assimilation. The French do not want to follow what they see as the Anglo-Saxon model of juxtaposed ethnic ghettoes. Immigrants who master the French language, codes, style, tastes, and flair are sincerely accepted and flourish here. Today, the personal success stories of French Muslims could be swept away by a rising wave of radicalization. …

The stakes are high and the debate could turn into a battlefield. Hassen Chalgoumi, the Imam of Drancy -- known for his outreach to Christians and Jews -- announced he is in favor of a ban on the niqab, which he calls "a prison for women, a tool of sexist domination and Islamist proselytism… incompatible with life in society." A few days later a "commando" of 80 men burst into Chalgouni's mosque and threatened to get rid of "the imam of the Jews."
More here.
FAILED STATES: Ralph Peters is not bullish on them:
What do Haiti and Afghanistan have in common, other than the presence of our military? They're both profoundly failed states that we pretend just need the right encouragement. …

We just can't think past the Western model of what a state should be. As long as there's one midlevel bureaucrat with a working cellphone in Country X, we insist there's a functioning government.
More here.
Ralph also writes:
In the ninth year of a war, we still don't want to know why the other guy fights.

The assumption … is that three-quarters of the Taliban fight for money or because of small-time grievances. There's zero serious data behind that belief. The assumption suits us, so we rig the intel.

After almost a decade of open warfare with Islamist militants, thousands of global terror attacks in the name of Allah and even deadly Muslim turncoats in our military, we continue to deny that our enemies might be fighting for their faith -- or, in the Taliban's case, for faith, tribe, tradition and territory.

Nope, we're convinced it's about the lack of jobs. Well, sorry -- the Taliban aren't the Teamsters.
More here.
GRAND STRATEGY? David Ignatius says he perceives a
growing recognition, especially within the U.S. military, that America has to get out of the business of fighting expeditionary wars every time a new flash point erupts with al-Qaeda. The Pentagon has adopted this proxy strategy of training "friendly" countries (meaning ones that share with us the enemy of Islamic extremism) from North Africa to the Philippines.

This "partnership" approach hasn't been articulated by the Obama administration as a formal strategy, and it doesn't get much media coverage. But it's worth a careful look, because it may offer the best path toward a world where the United States isn't always operating as an anti-terrorist Robocop.

The essence of this strategy is to train other countries to fight Islamic extremism that threatens them at least as much as us. As a senior military officer says: "We can't possibly go everywhere that al-Qaeda metastasizes. The idea is to build capacity for foreign militaries to deal with problems inside their borders."

Yemen offers the clearest example of how this "partnering" can work -- and how it differs from the direct combat the United States waged in Iraq and Afghanistan.
More here.
-Cliff May
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