Irreversible Changes in Egypt

On Tue, 6/1/10, Arab Reform Initiative wrote:

Gamal A. Gawad Soltan
Director of Al Ahram Center for Strategic Studies

In recent years, there has been an increase in the tempo of reform in Egypt, which can be seen in six domains in particular:

1) The expansion of the public sphere. Public space has been conquered by unions and civil society in order to express themselves, and indeed labor unions are attempting to gain their independence. This has gone hand-in-hand with increasing levels of activism on the part of traditional political elites as well as the entry of new segments of the population into the public sphere. However, while the political community has expanded, it has yet to reach critical mass.

2) Freedom of expression gaining ground. New media outlets are being formed and benefit from a degree of autonomy from the government. They have demonstrated an ability to address virtually all issues –including critiques of the president – with the exception of the military, which remains a widely respected institution.

3) Willingness of the government to negotiate. Whereas the state previously resisted compromise with all segments of the population, it has today demonstrated a willingness to negotiate, relying less on repression. For example, strikes today are often resolved via compromise with the government, although only with respect to social demands.

4) Polarization within the ruling party. Pro- and anti-reform wings within the NDP have emerged, with some differences even being made public – which has proven to be conducive to reform. This has recently been seen with regards to the renewal of Egypt’s emergency law: as opposed to a blanket renewal giving the government sweeping powers, legal commitments were insisted upon to limit the use of the law, enshrined in two important amendments.

5) Economic reform. Market reform has occurred very progressively, which has allowed Egypt to have sustained growth over the past three years. Nonetheless, socio-economic disparities are increasing, which has also prompted labor protests. The working class and disadvantaged have thus entered into the public sphere.

6) Improvement of public administration. A Sisyphean task given the size of Egypt’s public sector, the government has nonetheless embarked on the improvement of the performance of certain public administrations. This is a key challenge for the credibility of the overall reform process. Despite these shifts, reform in Egypt had remained largely a top-down process. The issue of succession has clouded reform demands over the last five years, during which the opposition was consumed by anticipating succession and mobilizing against it, thereby preventing the formulation of a full reform agenda. The depoliticization of Egyptian society over the last 40 years still prevails. Yet Elbaradei –although losing momentum today -has contributed to a certain repoliticization of society. Moreover, old sources of legitimacy are obsolete and the ballot box has become the key legitimizing process. These shifts are sustainable and indeed irreversible.

• Learn about the evolution of our project "Critical Dialogue with Islamist, Leftist..". and read our exposition "Critical Dialogue between Divergent Intellectual Currents: The Experience of the Arab Region"written by Nahla Chahal (in English and Arabic).

• And Read our last papers on "Arab Women and Reform" ( English and Arabic) : "The Moroccan Context", by Milouda Kerrouache and"The Jordanian Context", by Mona Elbatran.